Concerns About Increasing Social Inequality Due to the Energy Transition Are Rising

• 71% of Dutch people expect that the energy transition will lead to increasing inequality in purchasing power. A significant increase of 5 points compared to 2023.
• The number of Dutch respondents who say that maintaining purchasing power is more important than preventing climate change has increased from 41% to 43%.
• 74% of Dutch people are very or somewhat concerned about climate change, a slight decrease of 2 points compared to last year.

The latest edition of the BNP Paribas Just Transition Observatory 2024 reveals that concerns about the social consequences of the energy transition among the Dutch have further increased. Nearly three-quarters (71%) of respondents expect that the energy transition will lead to increasing inequality in purchasing power (+5 points compared to 2023). Another often-cited source of inequality is the degree to which people depend on their cars. 71% of Dutch people (+7 points compared to 2023) believe that the cost of living will further increase due to unequal dependence on mobility.

Another concern highlighted by the study is the prioritization of purchasing power over climate measures. In 2023, 41% of Dutch respondents indicated that climate policy should not come at the expense of purchasing power. This percentage increased to 43% in 2024. This demonstrates that support for climate policy should rely on measures addressing both the climate crisis and the purchasing power crisis.

Dutch people continue to worry about the impacts of climate change. In 2023, 76% expressed being very or somewhat concerned about climate change; this slightly decreased to 74% in 2024. This decline may suggest habituation to the continuous reporting on climate change, though it remains a significant concern for a large part of the population.

As in previous years, financial incentives that reward positive behavior are still seen as one of the most effective ways to reduce the carbon footprint. Additionally, 76% of the Dutch expect, even more so than other Europeans (72%), that the energy transition will particularly affect the most vulnerable groups in society. This suggests that economic tools can also play a crucial role in promoting sustainable behavior changes by distributing the burdens more fairly.

“We observe a growing concern among the public opinion about the geopolitical situation compared to last year. Nevertheless, research indicates that people remain also deeply worried about both the purchasing power crisis and the climate crisis. This highlights the crucial need for a fair energy transition, one that provides viable alternatives without burdening the financially vulnerable, who are often the smallest polluters. Achieving a just transition is not just a matter of justice, but it is also essential for sustaining people support. If the general public feels disproportionately impacted by the costs, it could lead to resistance against vital climate policies. As a financial institution, we have a role to play in contributing to this just transition.”

Grégoire Lusson, Head of NEST (Network of Experts in Sustainability Transitions) at BNP Paribas